Three Scenarios for Kosovo by 2028

This report, prepared by the research team at the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS), presents an analysis of Kosovo’s potential trajectory through the year 2028, focusing on the interplay between internal dynamics and external influencesIt outlines the critical challenges and opportunities Kosovo faces in its ambition to join the European Union, resolve the bilateral dispute with Serbia, and pursuit regional cooperation.

The analysis is anchored around two key uncertainties: the level of alignment between the Kosovo government and the Western allies, particularly the quint countries, and the degree of commitment from the Trans-Atlantic community towards the Western Balkans and Kosovo. The report underscores the strategic importance of these uncertainties in shaping three potential scenarios for Kosovo by 2028. These scenarios reflect varying degrees of success in navigating the complexities of international politics, regional tensions, and domestic challenges. It highlights the necessity for Kosovo to pursue an adaptive policy-making strategy with respect to the normalization dialogue with Serbia coupled with a pro-active approach in implementation of agreements from the Brussels Dialogue and rational engagement with the quint countries. Compromise is not a concession.