Kosovo 2030: Potential Foreign & Security Policy Scenarios

Driving Forces and Critical Uncertainties

The trajectory of Kosovo’s foreign and security policy over the next decade will be shaped by a limited set of highly consequential variables. These drivers vary in both impact and predictability, but together they define what is possible and what is at risk for Kosovo by 2030. The driver’s map (Figure 1) provides a structured approach to understanding this outlook, highlighting the issues that matter most and identifying where uncertainty is greatest. The map plots each driver along two axes: its expected impact on Kosovo’s foreign and security policy, and its level of uncertainty based on current trends, external dependencies, and political volatility. Our analysis is not a prediction, but a risk-informed outlook, aimed at clarifying where Kosovo’s energy, resources, and diplomacy should be concentrated in the years ahead.

Three drivers occupy the top-right quadrant of the map: those that are both highly impactful and highly uncertain. These are the issues that will shape Kosovo’s future more than any others, but where outcomes are also least assured.