Hybrid Threats in a Changing Geopolitical Landscape: THE WAR IN UKRAINE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR KOSOVO AND THE WESTERN BALKANS

Russia has historically maintained close ties with Slavic populations, with whom it shares religion and collective historical memory. These affinities have allowed Moscow to cultivate strong connections in the Western Balkans, particularly with Slavic-majority states such as Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and North Macedonia. By contrast, Russian influence in Albania is minimal, while in Kosovo it is primarily exercised through the Serbian population.1

Russia’s ambition to expand its influence in the region has intensified as it seeks to assert itself as a significant power in both regional and global politics. This geopolitical rivalry is reflected in Moscow’s support for nationalist forces, which it exploits to inflame inter-ethnic tensions, especially in Bosnia and Herzegovina and in Kosovo-Serbia relations. Such dynamics undermine regional stability and slow the Western Balkans’ progress toward EU and NATO integration. Nevertheless, most Western Balkan countries continue to pursue NATO membership, while all aim for EU accession. The war in Ukraine has introduced additional complexities to these integration processes.

Russia’s strategy in the Western Balkans has focused on deepening regional dependence on Russian energy, leveraging its position in international institutions to obstruct Western-led solutions, and promoting anti-Western narratives. It seeks to expand its influence over neighboring states, European countries, and the Western Balkans through a range of “hybrid threats,” including disinformation, cyberattacks, economic coercion, military pressure, and political interference. Experts estimate that Russia allocates between $1 billion and $4 billion annually to its information warfare efforts.2 For instance, in 2021, Kosovo authorities arrested Russian journalist Daria Aslanova, who was spreading Russian propaganda and was suspected of espionage.

While some EU countries have been familiarized with Russia’s hybrid war and with its ‘weaponization of everything’ tactics as a form of interference in the internal politics of other countries,4 Russia has increased its hostile activities against the EU countries. However, the role of the EU in countering hybrid warfare, particularly within the security framework, has gained renewed significance following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This shift reflects growing concerns over Russia’s expanding appetite for influence, often exercised through the “weaponization of everything” strategy. Hybrid warfare has become a tool to exert pressure on territories it seeks to subjugate, primarily by targeting the most fragile segments of those societies.

This underlines the urgent need to better understand the traditional forms of hybrid war that Russia deploys against its adversaries, which are narratively framed as EU countries and the Western Balkans. The internal justification for such actions often revolves around the rhetoric of a “war against the West,” which is portrayed as an ever-present threat. This narrative is designed to consolidate domestic support by amplifying fear and a perceived external menace.5

The Western Balkans are often seen as a gateway for Russia to extend its influence into Europe, exploiting local ethnic, social, and religious vulnerabilities to divide communities and weaken regional cohesion. Russia’s activities and interference in the region align closely with its broader global strategy, presenting itself as an anti-colonial power that claims to safeguard different ethnic and religious groups, while simultaneously waging a brutal war in Ukraine. Through threats, intimidation, and hybrid warfare, Russia seeks to exert pressure not only on its neighbors but also on the Western Balkans and the European Union.

The role of NATO and the EU is fundamental in deterring Russia’s hybrid warfare, particularly by developing and reinforcing strategies to counter Russia’s “weaponization” politics. This refers to their combined capacities: NATO stands at the forefront of deterrence, defense, and hybrid warfare through its military preparedness and unified command structure, enabling national armed forces to train and, when needed, fight together. Meanwhile, the EU provides the political and economic integration essential for confronting the hybridization of war, especially in the context of today’s energy and technological transitions. The EU, by stepping up its role in defense policy, should first create a single market for defense, make joint investments in EU defense capabilities, and establish agreements with industry and businesses to create a ‘European military-industrial complex’.

© This report is produced by Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) and Center for Security Studies “CENSS”, Ukraine, funded by the Open Society Foundations - Western Balkans. Views and opinions expressed are those of the author(s) only and do not necessarily reflect those of the Open Society Foundations—Western Balkans.