18/04/2025
Prishtina, April 2025 – A new report by the Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) shows that Serbia’s national security doctrine has evolved into a tool for institutionalizing hostility toward Kosovo, while deepening strategic cooperation with Russia and China, a development that has potential to undermine EU’s and NATO’s interests in the Western Balkans.
The report, “How Does the Serbian Security Doctrine View Kosovo, the West, Russia, and China?”, authored by Dr. Ramadan Ilazi, Head of Research at KCSS, presents an analysis of Serbia’s 2021 National Security Strategy. It finds that, behind the rhetoric of “military neutrality,” Serbia is systematically embedding anti-Western narratives and securitizing Kosovo’s statehood to justify aggressive behavior. Dr. Ilazi argues that "Serbia’s security doctrine does not only reject Kosovo’s independence but it frames Kosovo’s very existence as a security threat." Furthermore, he argues that “Serbia’s security doctrine is a political blueprint that provides strategic cover for Serbia’s interference in Kosovo aimed at eroding support for Kosovo’s independence.”
On paper, the security doctrine, positions Serbia as a state balancing between East and West. But KCSS researchers argue this is a façade. In reality, Serbia is pursuing a dual-track policy: engaging selectively with the West for economic and political gains, while fostering deep military, economic, and ideological partnerships with authoritarian powers, such as China and Russia.
“The findings confirm that Serbia’s security policy is increasingly aligned with Moscow and Beijing on core strategic issues,” said Mentor Vrajolli, Executive Director of KCSS. “This alignment, coupled with an adversarial stance toward Kosovo, creates a challenge for regional cooperation and Euro-Atlantic integration of the Western Balkans.”
Among the most potentially alarming elements of the strategy is Serbia’s embrace of a “Total Defense” concept — a model that militarizes society and blurs the line between civilian and military sectors. The report warns this approach could increase the risk of instability in the region, particularly as Serbia continues to portray the West, especially NATO, the EU, and civil society, as vectors of foreign interference.
“The doctrine’s selective threat perception, ignoring domestic far-right extremism, while labeling Kosovo as a source of problems, reflects a politicized and securitized worldview in Serbian government,” noted Jeta Loshaj, KCSS researcher. “This narrative is not evidence-based, but rather adjusted for domestic purposes to justify authoritarian practices and seek to assert regional dominance.”
The report calls for a pro-active response from Western actors but also Kosovo. It urges NATO and the EU to adopt a more consistent and coordinated policy toward Serbia, including conditionality mechanisms that link financial and political support to measurable democratic benchmarks and foreign policy alignment with the EU. It also recommends that Kosovo strengthen its diplomatic posture and improve coordination with key allies, if it is to be seen as a normative actor in the region
Report is available here: How Does the Serbian Security Doctrine View Kosovo, the West, Russia, and China?
